bitcoin safe haven

A version of this article appeared in our exclusive newsletter. If you’d like Block Explorer’s cutting-edge analysis in your inbox every Tuesday, sign up now.

Bitcoin is a safe haven from economic and financial crises.

It’s a hypothesis I’ve heard over and over again during my time covering financial markets.

I guess the idea comes from the concept of bitcoin as “digital gold.” Like gold, bitcoin has a limited supply and is seen by some as a “store of value.”

Christmas Eve was the perfect day to put the theory to the test. The US stock market suffered its largest one-day points fall in history. (And the biggest percentage fall since the last financial crisis).

If the theory is correct, bitcoin should have pumped.

It did – by about 5%.

Moreover, the Wall Street Journal pointed out bitcoin’s strong correlation to gold (paywall) over the Christmas stock market collapse. 

Gold is the flagship “safe haven” for investors, which suggests that investors might also be looking to cryptocurrency as an alternative investment.

The truth, however, is that bitcoin has never been truly tested by a global financial recession, so we shouldn’t jump to conclusions.

Traditional Safe Havens

A safe haven is an investment that protects (or hedges) against big falls in the stock market. Gold is the classic example. Over the decades, investors put money into gold when the stock market crashes. Gold has an intrinsic value and low volatility, making it a relatively safe store of money. 

Looking at the charts, you can see that gold has an inverse correlation with the stock market (see below). Investors put money into gold when stocks fall and vice-versa. We see a similar pattern for other precious metals like silver and platinum.

gold safe haven

Other examples of a safe haven include the dollar. As the world’s reserve currency, the dollar is seen as a relatively safe store of value for investors. The Japanese yen acts in a similar way during stock market volatility. So do government bonds.

Bitcoin as a Safe Haven?

With its status as “digital gold,” it has been suggested that bitcoin could function in a similar way to traditional safe havens.

Over Christmas 2018, bitcoin traded with a 0.85 correlation to gold (+1 being a complete correlation). The cryptocurrency also traded with a 0.77 correlation to the VIX index (the Chicago Board of Options Exchange’s Volatility index). The VIX is often used as a barometer for volatility on the stock market and typically trades with an inverse pattern to stocks. 

Altogether, it’s a strong indication that investors treated bitcoin in the same way as traditional safe havens during the stock market slump.

We’ve seen similar activity in the past.

In 2013, an economic crisis in Cyprus caused the government to confiscate the money in people’s bank accounts (known as a “bail-in”). Depositors had everything over €100,000 in their accounts turned into junk stock in the bank.

Bitcoin soared by 87% in the months that followed. A “safe haven” move for people to protect their money. Later, when Greece fell victim to the eurozone crisis, bitcoin pumped again. 

It appears that, on a small scale, people see bitcoin as a possible alternative when economies are in crisis.

Bitcoin Never Tested by a Global Recession

But let’s not get carried away. Bitcoin has never been tested by a widespread global recession. 

The first bitcoin was mined in 2009 – a year after the banking industry collapse wiped out global stock markets.

Since the stock market bottom in March 2009, investors have enjoyed a decade of strong gains on traditional markets.

Bitcoin has only ever existed in a stock market bull run.

How can we possibly call bitcoin a safe haven until we see what happens during a recession?

The Case For and Against

The WSJ article (paywall) claims that bitcoin is beginning to act more and more like a traditional asset class. The reason, the author explains, is the inflow of institutional investment into crypto.

Crypto funds like Grayscale currently manage almost $1 billion and reportedly own more than 1% of bitcoin supply for its investors. It also cites the high volume of venture capital (VC) activity in bitcoin.

With more liquidity and traditional investors in the space, we can more accurately assess bitcoin’s movements against traditional assets.

However, liquidity is still much lower than other safe havens. Gold has a market capitalization of more than $7 trillion. Bitcoin has a market cap of $66 billion. It simply doesn’t have the track record and inflow of funds as, say, gold.

Bitcoin is also significantly more volatile than gold. Bitcoin moved 73% during 2018 whereas gold moved just 4%.

“Bitcoin should not enter the discussion as a potential safe-haven”

A research paper published by Science Direct in November 2018 took a harsh line on bitcoin as a safe haven. 

The paper concluded that “Bitcoin should not enter the discussion as a potential safe-haven.” It cites the lack of long-term correlation with other safe haven assets as well as low liquidity and high volatility.

While bitcoin might follow short-term safe-haven movements, there is no long-term track-record to justify the safe haven tag. It also doesn’t meet the needs of investors during times of crisis; it’s too volatile and illiquid when investors are looking for safety and easy access to money.

We first need to see more liquidity in the market. And we need to see bitcoin tested through a real recession.

As the report concludes, “until the market matures, it is therefore unlikely to be worthwhile considering Bitcoin as a safe haven.”

Learned something new in this article? Subscribe to the Block Explorer newsletter to get exclusive crypto insights before they appear on the site.

Undoubtedly, the cryptocurrency market has not been kind to traders in 2018. All but a few cryptos have gone down in market cap. Still, some have fared better than others. In this article, we’ll look at the strongest cryptocurrencies in 2018. 

Best-Performing Cryptocurrencies, Criteria: 

  • This list only includes coins in top 100 by market capitalization, thereby excluding lower-ranked altcoins. 
  • We exclude all stablecoins pegged to another asset, such as Tether, PAX, and Dai.
  • We exclude any project that hasn’t been around for at least six months.
  • All prices sourced from CoinCodex, tracked from January 1st, and ranked by percentage fall in market capitalization. 
  • All prices correct at time of publishing (11th December, 2018).

Want to see the worst performing cryptocurrencies of 2018? Click here to see the biggest fallers.

10. Global Utility Token (OKB) -55.74%

Global Utility Token (OKB) is the native exchange cryptocurrency for OKEx. This exchange regularly ranks in the top three by 24-hour trading volume. Some applications for OKB include the OKB trading market, new listing vote, designated merchant privileges, and more. The exchange has made a few major moves in 2018 like announcing its operations expansion to Malta in April and adding several new stablecoins in October.

OKB

9. 0x (ZRX) -55.23% 

ZRX is the native cryptocurrency for 0x a project that aims to power decnetralized exchanges for just about anything. The project has even built its own decentralized exchange (DEX) called 0x OTC. One of the biggest supporting factors for the ZRX price this year was the token’s listing on Coinbase in October 2018.

0x

8. Ravencoin (RVN) -54.46%

Ravencoin (RVN) has done a decent job of meeting technical milestones. Ravencoin utilizes a use-specific blockchain that is “designed to efficiently handle one specific function: the transfer of assets from one party to another.” 

In October 2018, RVN began an upward price trend, 118% sustained growth over the course of one week. This was likely due to its listing on Binance and anticipation of the mainnet launch. Still, RVN prices have fallen somewhat since that time.

ravencoin

7. Holo (HOT) -53.56%

Holo (HOT) hasn’t been around all that long, with its ICO only ending in April 2018. This means that this cryptocurrency, unlike many others, didn’t have have to experience the major dip that began in January 2018. The main objective of this project is to create a bridge for greater and greater decentralization and autonomy over time. Essentially, its technology aims to help centralized systems to become 100% decentralized. 

The project has gained some momentum, mainly due to continued discussions about the progress of a partnership with Mozilla. Although there is no info from Mozilla that says this is official, the Holo team has said there probably won’t be an official announcement until after the initial product release of Holo, which should be sometime in Q1 2019.

holo (hot)

6. Loom Network (LOOM) -48.59%

Loom (LOOM) is designed specifically for games and social apps. The blockchain is developer-friendly in a bid to lure the most creative minds to the platform. Loom calls itself a “build your own blockchain” generator allowing developers to easily build dapps on their own sidechain of Ethereum. 

We all know that Ethereum has a scaling problem when it comes to running applications. Loom aims to fix that by providing a fast, scaled-up solution. The LOOM token acts as a membership pass, granting access to the suite of games and dapps.

Loom network

5. Pundi X (NPXS) -46.86%

Pundi X (NPXS) is creating a blockchain-based point-of-sale solution for retail businesses. Since August 2018, the project team has already shipped 5,000 XPOS (Pundi X Point of Sale devices) to various countries throughout the globe. 

In October 2018, the project made a major announcement. The project, together with Dubai’s official government credit bureau and regional distribution partners, is bringing XPOS to hundreds of storefronts across the city. In November 2018, Pundi X partnered with Singapore-based Quantum Energy Asset Management (QEAM) to launch a $100-million blockchain fund, which is expected to officially launch in January 2019.

Pundi x

4. Binance Coin (BNB) -43.65%

Binance Coin (BNB) is the third native exchange cryptocurrency to make this list. Binance’s ability to maintain its status as the world’s largest crypto-to-crypto exchange (by trading volume) has likely supported BNB prices.

The initial use-case for BNB was to pay fees on the Binance exchange, but there are bigger plans ahead. BNB is expanding to allow users to pay for goods and services, such as hotels. Most Binance employees even receive their salary (or parts of it) in BNB.

A lot of momentum around BNB is also likely due to more recent announcements. In December 2018, Binance developers released a second demo video for Binance DEX. The exchange is looking to launch its DEX platform sometime in early 2019. The exchange is also developing its own blockchain called “Binance Chain”.

binance coin

3. Decentraland (MANA) -42.53%

Decentraland (MANA) aims to become one of the most interesting and innovative use cases on the market. The Decentraland project team is building a VR world where users can use MANA as well as create their own 3D houses, banks, casinos, resorts, businesses, and more.

Even though the Decentraland platform isn’t yet operational, there has been a good bit of progress in 2018. For example, in November 2018, the project partnered with Ripio Credit Network (RCN) to provide smart contract-based mortgages for purchasing Decentraland LAND. Axie Infinity, another popular blockchain game, also announced a partnership with Decentraland in November 2018.

Decentraland just launched its second “land auction” to sell off 9,000+ parcels of virtual reality land.

Decentraland-Blockchain-VR

2. Huobi Token (HT) -19%

Huobi Token (HT), which launched in January 2018, marks the fourth (and highest-ranked) native exchange cryptocurrency featured in this list. HT was initially created and “distributed to paid Huobi VIP members in response to China’s crypto ban and decreased trading activity”. Compared to BNB, HT is a much newer cryptocurrency. 

In fact, HT was modeled on the success of BNB as a native exchange token and has similar functionalities. For example, like BNB for Binance, the Huobi exchange uses HT as an option for traders wanting to decrease exchange transaction fees. The company also has regular HT buyback/burn events.

huobi token

1. ODEM (ODE) +197%

ODEM (ODE), which launched in April 2018, has done well in recent bear market months. This cryptocurrency is part of a blockchain platform that aims to change the future of education and certifications. According to the project website, the platform will be a place where “students and student representatives can create and request services for education programs. Educators and educational service providers can receive requests for program fulfillment and delivery services.” 

In terms of technical deliverables, the project has made a lot of progress in a short amount of time. For example, smart contracts are already live on the mainnet, and there will be a full launch sometime in Q1 2019.

ODEM token

Conclusion

It’s been a rollercoaster year dominated by negativity and price crashes. However, these projects prove that hard work is going on behind the scenes. Passionate teams are building amazing things in blockchain. When the dust settles, these may be the projects that survive and shape the industry going forward.

Crypto Curious? Subscribe to the Block Explorer newsletter to get exclusive crypto insights before they appear on the site.

worst-performing cryptocurrencies 2018

It’s been a brutal year for crypto, but which are the worst cryptocurrencies? After the boom of 2017, the whole crypto market is in the red. Some projects are on the verge of bankruptcy while others are taking drastic measures such as cutting staff and re-organizing. 

However, some cryptocurrencies have performed worse than others. Here, we rank the ten worst-performing cryptocurrencies of 2018 and look at some of the reasons for their poor performance.

Worst-Performing Cryptocurrencies, Criteria: 

  • This list only includes coins in top 100 by market capitalization, thereby excluding lower-ranked altcoins. 
  • We exclude all stablecoins pegged to another asset, such as Tether, PAX, and Dai.
  • We exclude any project that hasn’t been around for at least six months.
  • All prices sourced from CoinCodex, tracked from January 1st, and ranked by percentage fall in market capitalization. 
  • All prices correct at time of publishing (10th December, 2018).

10. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) -95.5%

Bitcoin Cash suffered a disastrous end to the year after a contentious hard fork split the community. A vicious war of words broke out between the two sides and miners went to war. The blockchain ultimately split in two, spawning a new cryptocurrency, Bitcoin Cash SV. The controversy had a wholly negative impact on the value of BCH which has dropped 95.5% this year.

Further reading: Everything You Need to Know About the Bitcoin Cash Fork

Bitcoin Cash price chart 2018

9. Elastos (ELA) -95.58%

Elastos (ELA) is a cryptocurrency that aims to be used as part of the first completely safe and decentralized infrastructure for the internet. According to comments on various social media channels, here are some negative things to note about ELA. The inflation rate is too high, not many exchanges list this crypto, and specialized hardware (Elastos server) is needed to run applications. As of late 2018, there also isn’t support for ELA on major hardware wallets like Trezor and Ledger.

Elastos price chart 2018

8. ICON (ICX) -96.08%

ICON (ICX) launched with the goal to “hyperconnect the world” and “enrich our everyday lives through ‘connection’”. This is one of many projects aiming to improve blockchain interoperability. AION, Wanchain, and ARK are considered by many to be ICON’s top competition. 

Thus far, there have been a few relevant criticisms of the project. For example, after the mainnet launch in January 2018, the token swap was a slow process that dragged on all the way into late October 2018. Although the project has been in development for two years, the website still doesn’t have a proper roadmap listed.

ICON price chart 2018

7. Verge (XVG) -96.35%

Verge (XVG) announced a big partnership with PornHub in April 2018; however, this hasn’t had a positive impact on prices long-term. The biggest issue for this project in 2018 has been the constant 51% attacks. Although security issues have affected a number of exchanges and blockchains this year, Verge’s security woes are some of the most reported in crypto, and for good reason. 

In May 2018, one attack alone affected over 35 million coins in around five hours. The hacker stole around $1.8 million in XVG. While other projects that have suffered from 51% attacks, XVG has clearly been the most impacted this year. 

Verge price chart 2018

6. Populous (PPT) -96.69%

Populous Platform Token (PPT) is a cryptocurrency for Populous’ smart contract invoice finance platform, which runs on the Ethereum & RSK blockchains. There appears to have been a number of issues with the project’s technical features throughout 2018. For example, users of the beta version of the platform received error 502 and faced other problems. Therefore, many found it difficult to test the platform’s functionality. 

Another common criticism is a lack of responsiveness from the project team to questions from the community. As this article points out, this issue was also prevalent in 2017. The Telegram channel account owner has been inactive since July 2017, and this platform only had around 1,300 members.

PPT price chart 2018

5. Ardor (ARDR) -96.86%

Ardor (ARDR) is a cryptocurrency designed specifically for business applications. Looking at the project website, the Ardor platform itself is being developed for blockchain-as-a-service purposes. This project evolved from the Nxt blockchain, the first Proof-of-Stake consensus network. Ardor also features a unique parent-child chain architecture. 

Compared to others on this list, there doesn’t seem to be too many negatives regarding this project in 2018. Despite some wallet and network issues earlier in the year, it’s tough to pinpoint the exact cause of ARDR price declines. Perhaps the biggest issue (as with many blockchain projects) is that the tech is still underdeveloped.

Ardor price chart 2018

4. Bitcoin Diamond (BCD) -97.11%

Bitcoin Diamond (BCD) raises a few potential red flags for some people. For instance, its two main developers go by the pseudonyms “007″ and “Evey”, and source code isn’t available. Regardless, BCD aims to reduce transaction fees and completion times. Compared to BTC, BCD has larger block sizes, a higher total supply, and simplified mining processes. 

According to the first Weiss Cryptocurrency Ratings released in April 2018, BCD and a few other Bitcoin hard forks are merely copycats. While this report does highlight some of the positives of these new cryptocurrencies, it notes that BTC being the first-mover does take away some momentum from projects like BCD.

Further reading: 5 Failed Bitcoin Forks that Never Made It

Bitcoin diamond price chart 2018

3. Bitcoin Private (BTCP) -97.26%

Bitcoin Private (BTCP), as the name suggests, provides the possibility of private transactions. If you’re well-versed on cryptocurrencies, you know that BTC isn’t really anonymous. That’s why BTCP was created as a merge fork of Bitcoin and ZClassic. BTCP aims to compete with Verge, Monero, and other privacy coins. 

Earlier in 2018, a big discussion on the BTCP subreddit surrounded the lack of listings from top exchanges. Since then, low liquidity trading and conflicts within the team and community have all continued to be major issues. Still, it’s important to note that BTCP is one of the newer projects (launched in March 2018), in the top 100 market cap rankings.

Bitcoin Private price chart 2018

2. Qtum (QTUM) -97.36%

Qtum (QTUM) is another project that aims to become a leader in the smart contract market. The project made significant progress after its ICO ended in March 2017. The testnet launched only three months later. 

The mainnet launched three months after the testnet release, very quick when compared to the vast majority of blockchain projects. The issue seems to be that Qtum’s competition has implemented better technology, at least as of late 2018. According to one article, Aion and ICON are both ahead of Qtum. There are also other competitors to consider like Ethereum, NEO, Zilliqa, and many more.

Qtum price chart 2018

1. Aion (AION) -97.57%

Aion (AION) is a third generation blockchain project that (as mentioned above) competes with ICX and others by focusing on increasing interoperability between various chains. Some potential use cases listed on the project website include supply chain logistics, Internet-of-Things, online media marketplace, fundraising, and digital identities. 

As with Ardor, Aion doesn’t seem to have faced too many major issues in 2018. Nonetheless, some people have said that the project is too ambitious and it finds itself with the biggest percentage drop in market cap of 2018.

Aion price chart 2018

Conclusion

After the euphoria of 2017 and the rapid growth of altcoins, this year has been tough for cryptocurrency projects. It has been predicted that most altcoins will “go to zero,” but can the projects on this list turn it around next year? Join us tomorrow for our run-down of the best performing cryptocurrencies of 2018.

Crypto Curious? Subscribe to the Block Explorer newsletter to get exclusive crypto insights before they appear on the site.

blockchain charity donations

To round out the year, we asked our Block Explorer writers to tell us what they’re most excited about for blockchain and crypto in 2019. In this piece, Rebecca Campbell explores the potential for blockchain to bring transparency to charitable giving.

As 2018 draws to a close, a look back at the last 12 months has been anything but smooth for the cryptocurrency market.

This time last year, bitcoin was trading within touching distance of $20,000 and the bulls were loving it. Fast-forward to December 2018 and bitcoin has fallen roughly 80%. So, as the market slowly turns away from 2018 and looks ahead to 2019, what is it that I’m most excited about the space for the New Year?

Blockchain Brings Transparency to Charity 

Throughout 2018, the use of the blockchain in the supply chain industry has demonstrated the potential the technology has in improving services.

Whether it’s within art, food, humanitarian, fashion or healthcare, knowing what is happening from start to finish can change how we view things, delivering a greater level of transparency, and with it trust.

For me, I’m particularly interested in seeing how the blockchain can change how we give money to charities. 

Blockchain in Supply Chains

Millions of people around the world donate to charity, but for many, the question of how the money is spent and who it’s helping often remains unanswered.

Trust and confidence in the charity sector remains low, according to a Trust in Charities 2018 report by Populus, a UK market research company, and the Charity Commission for England and Wales.

It notes that trust and confidence had dropped to 5.5 out of 10, declining from 5.7 when the report was last conducted in 2016. This drop in faith follows the scandal surrounding Oxfam earlier this year, in which Oxfam was banned from Haiti after its workers were accused of sexual misconduct.

Trust in charities
Trust in charities has declined precipitously over the last few years, according to Populus report.

Blockchain Startups Bring Transparency to Charity Donations

In a bid to improve how we view charity donations, there are already several platforms available, which are working at bringing about transparency to the donation process.

One of which is London-based Alice, a social funding and impact management platform built on the Ethereum blockchain.

Launched in 2017, the platform’s first pilot was in partnership with St. Mungo’s a UK-based homeless charity. The aim of which was to find homes for 15 homeless people on the streets of London.

Alice blockchain charity
Alice’s pilot project to help the homeless in London

Raising $103,000 in Bitcoin

Another platform that is delivering transparency to how we donate is Italian startup Helperbit, a natural disaster management platform whose goal is to bring transparency to the charity and insurance sectors, giving people back the power.

To date, Helperbit has received 354 donations, amounting to nearly $109,000 in bitcoin from 1,298 users, with 12 different projects currently ongoing. One project is raising money for toys that can be built or adapted for children with disabilities. Another project is raising money for a clean water project in Nigeria.

California-based BitGive Foundation is another platform that is making waves within the crypto and blockchain giving space.

Founded in 2013, the first Bitcoin non-profit organization has been working for the last five years at boosting transparency within the donation industry. Last October, BitGive went live with its beta version of GiveTrack, a blockchain-based donation platform that enables donors to transfer, track, and deliver a permanent record of transactions across the globe from start to finish.

BitGive projects
BitGive projects from 2013 – 2016

Earlier this month, the organization launched GiveTrack 1.0 which lets donors track how their funds are used in real time. BitGive also announced its support for four new non-profit organizations: Code to Inspire, Desafio Levantemos Chile, América Solidaria and Run for Water.

Donors Know Exactly Where Their Money Is Going

Through the GiveTrack platform, it’s aiming to give donors a higher level of confidence, knowing that the money they are donating is going to those who need it the most as well as how the funds are spent.

These are just a few of the charity platforms that are using blockchain to improve the donation supply chain. And as we move toward 2019, I’m excited to see what else these organizations have in store and how they can further improve the charity sector.

With confidence and trust at an all-time low for the charity sector, blockchain-based platforms, such as those mentioned, are paving the way to how more people around the world may donate in the future.

Crypto Curious? Subscribe to the Block Explorer newsletter to get exclusive crypto insights before they appear on the site.

blockchain holiday reading

Happy holidays, folks. It’s been a long, tough year in the world of crypto, but if you’re reading this, I think you’ll be on the right side of history when the dust settles.

We’re riding out this crypto winter by putting together some of the best blockchain guides out there. The most important thing you can do right now is build knowledge, expand your understanding, and gain confidence in this new technology.

So, whether you’re bored over the holidays or hiding from the in-laws, let’s dive into some of our most popular guides so far. (If you like them, stick around because we’ll have plenty more in the new year).

1. What is Bitcoin? Absolutely Everything You Need to Know

This is our flagship beginner’s guide to bitcoin. It’s written in simple, easy-to-understand language, but you’ll feel like a pro by the end of it. We cover everything from bitcoin’s mysterious creator, the technology that powers it, and how to buy it.

Read it now.

2. What is Ethereum? Absolutely Everything You Need to Know

A beginner’s guide to the third-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum. Like our bitcoin guide, it’s written in simple language designed to level up your knowledge as you read through it. Discover how Ethereum is different to bitcoin and how it could disrupt an entire generation of existing services.

Read it now.

3. The Silk Road: A History of Bitcoin, Drugs, and the Dark Web

Launched in February 2011, the infamous Silk Road marketplace became a hub for drug dealers using bitcoin and the dark web to sell their wares. Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht is currently serving a double life sentence, plus 40 years, without parole. But the story is not so simple. It’s a story of corrupt police detectives, aliases, and deep conspiracy.

Read it now.

4. Who is Satoshi Nakamoto (Bitcoin’s Mysterious Creator)?

We reveal 24 clues about the elusive creator of bitcoin. Known only as the pseudonym “Satoshi Nakamoto,” Bitcoin’s founder has never been identified. He disappeared completely in 2011, but not without leaving a few possible hints at his identity.

Read it now.

5. 13 of the Best Blockchain Games (& How to Actually Play Them)

In late 2017, a blockchain game called Cryptokitties became so popular it congested the entire Ethereum network. But it gave us an insight into how big blockchain gaming could become. Although most blockchain games are still quite primitive, there’s huge potential out there. Here are 13 of the best so far.

Read it now.

6. The Most Important Women in Blockchain

As the New York Times reported earlier this year, the blockchain industry has been dominated by “blockchain bros,” with women accounting for just four-to-six percent of blockchain investors. We shine a light on ten groundbreaking women taking the industry forward.

Read it now.

7. A Complete History of Bitcoin

We track the cryptocurrency timeline back to the very earliest attempts at digital currency (ten years before bitcoin was created). Along the way, we point out the biggest moments in bitcoin history including the infamous Mt. Gox hack, the Silk Road dark-web marketplace, to the historic $20,000 price tag.

Read it now.

8. The 12 Best Bitcoin Wallets

Storing your bitcoin in a safe and secure wallet is the most important decision you’ll make in your crypto journey. But how do you find one you trust? We dive into the 12 best wallets in 2018 and beyond.

Read it now.

Happy holidays from all of us here at Block Explorer!