bitcoin etf price

Bitcoin ETFs were all over the news during 2018. 

Many voices called them out as some kind of magical act that would lead the price of Bitcoin to its former glory and maybe even higher than that. 

While an approved ETF could be the catalyst that kicks off a new bitcoin bull run, there is still misunderstanding and misinformation among crypto enthusiasts. 

It’s time to answer some burning questions: what is a bitcoin ETF? What consequences will it have for the future bitcoin price? And, of course, how likely it that a bitcoin ETF is approved in the coming months?

What is an ETF? (A Simple Explanation)

To start with, let’s define an ETF itself.

ETF stands for Exchange-Traded Fund. It’s a fund that tracks and mirrors the price of an underlying asset (like gold, for example). An ETF might also track a basket of assets (like tech stocks).

Shares of an ETF are traded on real stock exchanges and generally do not differ from traditional stocks in terms of trading.

Some of the most popular ETFs include those for gold (GLD) and crude oil (USO).  

The main advantage of an ETF is simplicity and convenience. It is much easier to trade an ETF than it is to purchase gold or bitcoin or oil itself.

what's an etf
Credit: Stocks to Trade

Who Makes and Approves ETFs?

ETFs are created by asset management firms. The firm buys the underlying assets (i.e. bitcoin) and keeps them under custody before creating an ETF.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is responsible for approving an ETF. Once they are approved, investors can buy shares of the ETF from a stock exchange. 

An ETF share represents a certain percentage of the fund, but it does not represent ownership of the underlying asset. If you buy a bitcoin ETF, you are not buying bitcoin itself.

ETFs are popular investments for diversifying portfolios with minor monetary and timely expenditures. 

What is a Bitcoin ETF?

A bitcoin ETF is an investment tool that would track the price of bitcoin. If approved, it would introduce an easy way for investors to get exposure to bitcoin without having to buy or store it directly. Traders would be able to buy and sell shares of the bitcoin ETF on a regulated stock exchange.

Although Bitcoin is already one of the most liquid assets on earth, it still can’t be traded on a regular stock exchange.

As well as the added convenience, investors could buy the bitcoin ETF through their existing, familiar investment account.

bitcoin etf on the stock exchange

Why a Bitcoin ETF Could Lead to “Big Money” Institutional Investors

The most significant benefit of buying ETF shares instead of real bitcoins, apart from its availability on stock markets, is the fact that institutional investors don’t have to store it themselves. 

Therefore, there is no risk of the bitcoins getting stolen. 

Big institutions are currently prohibited from buying bitcoins directly, but an ETF would make their participation in the market a reality.

Regarding that, there are currently two different types of bitcoin ETFs proposed by multiple asset management firms: physical-backed ETFs and futures-backed ETFs.

What is a Physical-Backed Bitcoin ETF?

As you might have already suspected, a physical-backed bitcoin ETF gains its value through actual bitcoins. 

This means an asset management firm needs to buy bitcoins from the market and then store them in their own wallets or custody service. 

Price swings in the ETF should, therefore, be reflected by the price of an actual bitcoin. If bitcoin’s price increases by one percent, the price of a physical-backed ETF should rise by one percent as well.

What is a Futures-Backed ETF?

When trying to set up a futures-backed ETF, the issuing company does not have to buy actual bitcoins, but bitcoin “futures contracts”. Futures are financial instruments that are used to bet on the future price of that asset.

All futures contracts expire on a certain date, although there are different timeframes, e.g. weekly or quarterly. 

Futures traders are confronted with higher risks, but also higher rewards. Regarding the ETF, the issuing company has to update their future contracts every time the contracts expire.

Historic Bitcoin ETF Proposals and Rejections

Although Bitcoin ETFs received a lot of media attention in 2018, there have been dozens of attempts to push one through before. 

Two of the most popular applicants might be the Winklevoss twins, who have supported bitcoin for several years. As CoinDesk investigated in 2017, the brothers submitted their first ETF proposal in mid-2013, with numerous additional proposals in the following years. Unfortunately, the SEC was not satisfied with their offerings so far. 

Winklevoss Twins bitcoin ETF
Credit: Forbes

Besides Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, many other players are heavily interested in issuing a Bitcoin ETF. As Block Explorer previously reported, the SEC rejected nine applications solely in August this year. This includes multiple proposals for a futures-backed ETF by ProShares, Direxion, and GraniteShares, in collaboration with the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).

Often referred to as the most promising ETF is a proposal given by a collaboration of the investment firm VanEck, the blockchain company SolidX and the CBOE. 

In this case, the ensemble is proposing a physical-backed ETF. Experts think this particular group has a higher chance of approval, due to their past experience issuing ETFs. 

The date for a decision has already been postponed by the SEC for the second time. While the next date would be on December 29, it is very likely that it will be changed another time. 

What Does the SEC Need to See Before It Approves a Bitcoin ETF?

According to most experts, it probably seems more logical to introduce a physical-backed ETF than a futures-backed one. 

However, from the angle of an asset management firm, it’s actually quite the opposite. Roughly 85% of all Bitcoin ETF applications are futures-backed ETFs. 

A major reason for this trend is, without a doubt, the frequently discussed custody question. Securely storing large amounts of cryptocurrencies has been a great stumbling block for many big players, like exchanges, in the past and present. 

Additionally, bitcoin futures are already a financial instrument open to institutions and have been approved by the SEC before. Consequently, it appears like a smaller step to introduce a futures-backed ETF. 

However, a very critical development the SEC wants to see, before approving an ETF, is a steep reduction of market manipulation and fraud attempts.

When rejecting nine ETF proposals in August, the SEC stated that 

SEC“…the Commission is disapproving this proposed rule change because, as discussed below, the Exchange has not met its burden under the Exchange Act and the Commission’s Rules of Practice to demonstrate that its proposal is consistent with the requirements of the Exchange Act Section 6(b)(5), in particular the requirement that a national securities exchange’s rules be designed to prevent fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices.”

 

Further reading: Bitcoin ETFs: Why Do They Keep Getting Rejected?

Bitcoin ETF Quotes and Predictions

Since ETFs are one of the hottest topics this year, there have been several voices expressing their opinions, about if and when an ETF could be on the cards.

For example, FIC Network Founder Arturs Ivanovs told Finance Magnates that:

“Volume from institutional investors would facilitate a significant regulated market that would reduce the scale of price manipulation thereby easing the SEC’s concerns. An ETF would also open up the market to more retail investors.” 

 

After being asked for a date, Ivanovs said, “2020 is my prediction.”

Income Locker CEO Csaba Csabai thinks that there might be other hurdles that need to be cleared. “There is still technological development needed to make Bitcoin exchange-tradable because when buying an ETF, someone has to actually purchase bitcoins,” he said in a conversation with Finance Magnates. Nevertheless, Csabai also sees a silver lining, as he went on with “if the rate of adoption continues to grow at the current pace, we will soon see an ETF, because it’s the only way institutions can access this asset class, so solving it as soon as possible is in their best interest.”

In an interview with ETF.com, Spencer Bogart, Needham & Co vice president of equity research said:

spencer bogart bitcoin etf quote“We have pegged the odds at less than 25 percent. That is because the very first thing the SEC lists in its own mission statement is protecting the investing public. When you think about the game theory aspect of this, if I work at the SEC and I approve this ETF. and it goes well, nobody is probably going to come around and pat me on the back and give me a promotion. But if I approve it and a lot of money flows into it, and something goes wrong, I am likely to lose my job.”

 

However, there are also parties that don’t believe in a Bitcoin ETF at all. Nouriel “Dr. Doom” Roubini believes that the crypto space has several issues, like fraud and manipulation, that will make an ETF not feasible in the near future. In a debate at CoinTelegraph’s BlockShow, Nouriel recently stated that “The academic evidence is, that this market is totally manipulated.” He later continued, “How do you expect anybody, who is an institutional investor, who has to be compliant with the rules and regulation, KYC/AML, to enter the space.” 

Could an ETF Influence Bitcoin’s Price?

To answer this question, one clearly needs to distinguish between a futures-backed and a physical-backed ETF. As already elaborated in the beginning, to create a physical-backed ETF the issuing firm needs to buy bitcoin from the market.

Although those deals wouldn’t be made on a regular crypto exchange, it would inevitably have an effect on bitcoin’s price, due to the immense amounts of bitcoin that would be needed for an ETF. 

In addition, an approved ETF would attract countless speculators, who would probably buy bitcoin right away.  So yes, a physical-backed ETF would, with almost full certainty, have a great impact on the price of bitcoin. 

In regard to a futures-backed ETF, the impact might not be as big as with the physical one. The issuer would only need to buy futures contracts, hence the price wouldn’t be directly affected. 

Futures would most probably help to spread adoption in institutional circles, but this would only be valid in the long term. In the worst case, it could even have a negative impact on bitcoin, as the past has already shown when bitcoin futures were introduced for the first time. 

Still, we can’t be sure about the impact before an ETF has even been officially approved.

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CNBC’s cryptocurrency analyst Ran NeuNer is no stranger to bold statements about bitcoin. Last month, he said bitcoin was about to “explode,” claiming he was loading up on the cryptocurrency for his parents.

But his most ambitious statement, made in February 2018, was that bitcoin would surge to more than double its all-time high by the end of the year.

He even pinned the tweet:

ran neuner bitcoin tweet

That pinned tweet has now been replaced with a new one backtracking the price prediction:

ran neuner tweet bitcoin

 

After phenomenal excitement at the beginning of the year, bitcoin has entered a deep bear market with the price sitting almost 70% down from its all-time high.

The bitcoin price is little changed this week, trading in a small range just above $6,300.

Time to Quit the Crazy Price Predictions?

Neuner wasn’t the only one with ambitious price targets for bitcoin. Infamous bitcoin bull Tom Lee still maintains his $20,000+ target for the end of the year. Lee’s fund, Fundstrat, has predicted that bitcoin will hit $64,000 at some point in 2019.

Venture Capitalist Tim Draper has predicted $250,000 by 2022, while John McAfee’s prediction is perhaps the most bizarre of all: $1 million by 2020.

As bitcoin continues its protracted cool-off period, NeuNer might not be the only one retracting his wild price predictions.

China destroy bitcoin

Welcome to the weekend, folks. Grab a coffee and let’s recap the biggest news stories of the week in cryptocurrency and blockchain.

China Has “Capability” and “Motive” to Destroy Bitcoin, According to Report

A new report this week claims China could destroy Bitcoin. The report, authored by researchers at Princeton University and Florida International University outlines 19 different ways China could attack the Bitcoin network.

Is it based in truth?

Theoretically, yes. The report points to the fact that 74% of Bitcoin mining hash power comes from China. And five of the six largest Bitcoin mining pools are located in the country.

bitcoin mining pools

If those mining pools collectively orchestrated a 51% attack, they would control the network, and bring it down if they wish.

However, it’s important to point out that the Chinese government doesn’t own these mining pools. And the mining pools themselves have little incentive to execute a 51% attack (it would kill the value of bitcoin, making their efforts worthless).

What is concerning is the level of Bitcoin centralization in China.

The report goes on to explain how China’s “Great Firewall” appears to give Chinese miners an advantage. It slows down miners outside China and incentivizes those within the firewall to generate “empty blocks” (the blocks contain no transactions, but the miner receives a bitcoin reward anyway).

This, coupled with cheap electricity in China, is centralizing mining power in one country. And that’s a problem.

Note: the report in question has not yet been peer-reviewed.

Venezuela Is Forcing Citizens to Use Its Controversial Cryptocurrency to Buy Passports

As Venezuela’s fiat currency, the bolivar, soars towards 1,000,000% inflation, the government is putting its faith in a state cryptocurrency, petro.

Venezuela petro cryptocurrency

The petro was created by the Venezuelan government and its value is backed by the country’s oil price to keep it stable. Citizens are now required to pay for passports and renewals using only the petro cryptocurrency.

But the petro isn’t without controversy. Its creators have been accused of ripping off the Dash whitepaper. The US government has also accused Venezuela of using the petro to defraud investors, and critics say the petro pre-sale didn’t generate nearly as much as the Venezuelan government claims.

Cryptocurrencies Pose No Risk to Global Financial Stability

In somewhat brighter news, a report this week concluded that cryptocurrencies are not a risk to the global financial system.

The report carries some weight. It was released by the Financial Stability Board and is backed by the Bank for International Settlements, the world’s oldest financial institution.

However, it does go on to say there may be a tipping point in the future.

If they continue to grow, the report claims, cryptocurrencies may one day pose a threat to the reputation of current banks and financial systems. There may be a risk of exposure if traditional banks adopt crypto on a wider scale.

And there may be risky consequences if bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies become a common payment method.

Price News

The cryptocurrency market suffered an epic $16 billion wipeout on Thursday. It took place in just a few hours, dragging bitcoin down 4%.

bitcoin price
Chart: Coinmarketcap.com

As usual, altcoins bore the worst of the fall. Ethereum, XRP, and others fell in the region of 10%.

That’s all for this week. We’ll be back bright and early on Monday.

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coin renders

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Electrum Pro Site Shuts Down, Citing ‘False Accusations’ As Cause
Following the proof released and verified on may 9th, the site hosting the malware Electrum Pro seems to have been voluntarily shut down. A message on the site states Electrum Pro’s reputation has been ruined due to false accusations from electrum.org. The message further states that the domain is up for sale for 25BTC, and provides a contact email. (BlockExplorer verified that the proof was genuine and Electrum Pro is lying.)

Bitcoin Wallet Mycelium Begins Rolling Out BCH Support
BlockExplorer’s David Murray reports on the popular bitcoin wallet Mycelium rolling out support for bitcoin cash.

More Bitcoin Moved From Mt. Gox Wallet, Possible Sell-Off Affects Bitcoin Price
The Mt. Gox bankruptcy trustee is suspected to have dumped another 8,000 bitcoin on the cryptocurrency market. CCN reports, “Today, on May 11, various reports have suggested that the recent price dip of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies was triggered by the sell-off of Mt. Gox coins.”

South Korean’s Largest Cryptocurrency Exchange Raided
CoinDesk Korea reports that on May 10 and 11 investigators from Seoul’s prosecutors’ office searched the head office of popular cryptocurrency exchange Upbit. “UPbit is suspected of fraud for allegedly selling cryptocurrency to customers that it does not actually hold”, according to the report.

Venture Capitalist Tim Draper: “Bitcoin Is The Most Secure Place To Put Your Money”
Tim Draper joined CNBC’s Closing Bell to discuss bitcoin. Draper was bullish on bitcoin stating, “It is a far better currency than the fiat currency. I mean, right now, your banks are being attacked all the time. The hackers are poking holes in your banks and going after your fiat money. And… the bankers are pounding away, trying to keep the hacks away but they’re getting hacked all of the time. No one has ever hacked the bitcoin blockchain. It is the most secure place to put your money.”

Image courtesy of Carty Sewill, http://cartyisme.com/

The price of bitcoin has surpassed the $8,800 mark, rising 6 percent within the last 24 hours. Trading volumes across the major cryptocurrency exchanges have also increased beyond $26 billion for the first time in a while.

Upward trend.

Last month, bitcoin tested the $9,200 mark, but it didn’t take long before it fell to $6,500 after failing to sustain the momentum to bounce off $8,200.

Based on the fluctuations in the price the market has witnessed in recent weeks, it is quite likely that bitcoin will test the $9,200 mark again as it did last month, and it could even surpass it. A movement above the $9,200 level it reached late March could see bitcoin price entering the $10,000 region before April ends.

Psychological threshold.

Investors highlighted the $10,000 mark for bitcoin in November last year was both a psychological threshold and a key milestone. They predicted it would surge substantially, way before it got to $10,000. Bitcoin was relentless towards the ending of last year.  After breaking the $10,000 ceiling – it rose to $14,000 and eventually to $20,000, where the decline started.

Since the corrections of February this year, and the series of regulations in recent weeks, the market has struggled to hold forth any form of stability. As always, the price of most altcoins and tokens have taken a cue from bitcoin which has been battered since the turn of the year. Regional exchanges in Japan and South Korea have not been spared either as both have witnessed a decrease in trading volumes.

The new trend in the price of BTC is an ideal position for the currency to rally round for both the short and mid-term, given that more people are getting aware of cryptocurrency as adoption has increased.